碳市场风险的分析与控制 (二)沙盘推演

Carbon Market Risk Analysis and Control Part Ⅱ Sand-table Simulation

作为前一论文的续篇,在大能源系统动态仿真平台(DSMES)上,按欧盟碳排放交易体系(EU ETS)及具体数据建立了模拟微观交易行为的碳市场模型,仿真模拟了欧洲碳市场第2阶段(2008—2012年)全球金融危机及欧洲债务危机对价格的动态影响。在不同扰动场景下,以配额调节为主要控制措施,推演了预防控制、紧急控制及其协调控制有效降低风险的效果,验证了系列论文首篇提出的碳市场风险防控框架及沙盘推演的理念对监管机构协调优化决策的支撑。

As a sequel to the previous paper,based on the dynamic simulation platform for macro energy systems（DSMES）,this paper constructs a carbon market model which can simulate micro-trading behavior,according to the European Union Emissions Trading System（EU ETS）and relevant specific data.Based on this model,the dynamic impacts of the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis on carbon prices in the second phase（from 2008 to 2012）of EU ETS are simulated.Furthermore,taking allowance adjustments as the major control measure,this sand-table simulates the risk reducing effects of the preventive control,emergency control and coordinated control under different disturbance scenarios,which verifies the proposed carbon market risk defense framework and the concept of sand-table simulation can support the regulatory to coordinate and optimize their strategies.