农户参与生猪规模养殖生态能源系统的行为演化

The Evolution of Behavior of the Farmers in Scale Pig Breeding Ecological Energy System

针对生猪规模养殖生态能源系统出现的新问题,在前期研究和系统动力学基模分析的基础上,构建演化博弈模型对系统的主要行为主体农户的行为演化过程进行分析,并由演化博弈动态复制系统构建了系统动力学演化博弈流率基本入树模型对德邦牧业规模养殖生态能源系统开展情景模拟仿真。结果显示,农户参与生猪规模养殖生态能源系统收益的提高和成本的降低、劣势农户份额占比的提升及博弈双方相对收益与其绝对收益之差的相关系数的降低有利于生猪规模养殖生态能源系统农户行为收敛于"参与"的合作策略,进而促进生态能源系统的稳定运行,并提出了相关政策建议。

Based on the preliminary research and analysis of the base model of System Dynamics（SD）, the evolution game model is used to study the evolution process of main behaviors of the pig scale breeding ecological system, and the evolution game dynamic replication system is employed to construct the rate variable based on in-tree model to simulate Jiangxi Debang scale pig breeding ecological energy system stability. The result shows that the decrease of correlation coefficient among the income of the farmers; participation in the Eco-energy system of the scale pig breeding, the decrease of the cost, the increase of the proportion of the inferior peasants and the relative and absolute income of the game, encourage the farmers to participate in the scale pig breeding in the ecological energy system, thus promoting the stable operation of ecological energy system. Finally, relevant recommendations is put forward.