房价、产业结构变迁与人力资本

House Prices,Industrial Structure Change and Human Capital

近年来,房价对人力资本数量的影响效应得到了部分学者的关注,而关于深层次的人力资本质量随房价上涨的变化尚未引起关注。运用2003-2016年我国31个省级面板数据对房价对人力资本影响以及产业结构变迁在两者关系中的调节作用进行了层级回归分析。研究发现,房价对人力资本的影响在挤出效应和集聚效应的共同作用下呈现出先下降后上升的U型关系。产业结构高级化在房价对人力资本的影响关系中起负向调节作用。即产业结构越高级,房价对人力资本的影响越弱,房价与人力资本之间的关系曲线越平缓,人力资本对房价变动越不敏感。对此提出相关政策建议,加快产业结构向高级化转型是避免因房价而造成的人才外迁和促进区域经济健康发展的重要措施。

In recent years, the effect of housing prices on the amount of human capital has attracted the attention of some scholars, but we cannot directly get significant conclusions about the quality of human capital with rising housing price. In this paper, a hierarchical regression analysis is conducted on the effect of the 31 province-level panel data on human capital and industrial structure change in the relationship between 2003 and 2016. The research shows that the influence of housing price on human capital presents a positive U-shaped relationship that rises after the first decline in the joint action of crowding out and agglomeration effect. The high level of industrial structure plays a negative role in the influ- ence of housing price on human capital. Namely, the higher the industrial structure, the weaker the impact of housing price on human capital, the more gradual the relationship between housing price and human capital, and the less sensitive human capital is to housing price changes. This paper puts forward relevant policies and suggestions on how to accelerate the transformation of industrial structure into a higher level, which is an important talents and promote the healthy development of regional economy due to the housing measure to avoid the migration of price.