实现新时代两步走战略目标的可能性分析

An Analysis of the Possibility of Realizing the Strategic Goal of China's Two Steps in the New Era

新时代两步走战略目标是要到21世纪中叶把我国建成富强民主文明和谐美丽的社会主义现代化强国。从国内生产总值和人均国民总收入这两个指标来分析实现现代化的可能性,可以发现,根据2010—2017年的中美经济增长趋势推算,在正常情况下,中国国内生产总值规模在2040年前后赶上美国,中国人均国民总收入在21世纪40年代跨越中等收入陷阱,是大概率事件。但是,中国人均国民总收入要在21世纪中叶达到美国的50%则具有一定的挑战性。在未来30多年里,中国经济既要不断提高发展质量,又要保持中高速增长。保持政治和社会稳定,不断扩大开放,不断推进改革和制度创新,是实现新时代两步走战略目标的必要条件。

The strategic goal of China＇s two steps of the new era is to develop the country into a powerful, strong, democratic, civilized, harmonious and beautiful socialist country by the mid-21st Century. This paper mainly analyzes the possibility of achieving the modernization of the two indexes of GDP and per capita GNI. Research shows that, based on the 2010-2017 years＇ trend of Sino US economic growth, under normal circumstances, China＇s GDP is expected to catch up with the US around 2040, and China＇s per capita GNI is to cross the Middle Income Trap in 2040s, which will be an event with high probability. However, it is somewhat challenging for China to achieve a per capita GNI 50% that of the United States in the mid-21^st Century. In the coming 30 years, China＇s economy should not only improve the quality of development, but also maintain medium and high speed growth. Maintaining political and social stability, constantly expanding opening to the outside world, and constantly advancing reform and system innovation are the necessary conditions for the realization of the strategic goal of the two steps of the new era.