低油价下亚洲天然气市场现状及展望

Current situation and prospect of Asian natural gas market in the low oil price period

过去几年的低油价引起天然气价格大幅回落,带动全球天然气需求恢复增长,推动天然气贸易尤其是LNG贸易快速发展,全球LNG贸易格局发生重大变化。未来全球天然气需求增长将依赖政策驱动和供应驱动,2030年前将保持稳健增长。LNG增加了天然气在全球的可获得性,预计未来5年全球LNG市场持续宽松,但是如果后续投资不及时,市场可能面临供应缺口;随着近期油价及LNG价格从低位回升,LNG项目投资低迷的僵局或将被打破。亚洲作为全球最大的LNG买方,建议抓住短暂的LNG买方市场机遇,积极优化现有和新签LNG合同,适度参与LNG上中游投资;统筹LNG采购和贸易,避免资源竞争,探索区域联合供应和应急新机制。

Low oil prices have led to a decline in oil-indexed gas prices and have contributed to recovery of global gas demand over the past few years, which led the rise of gas trade, especially LNG trade, and will result in dramatic changes in the world＇s LNG market landscape. The future gas demand will be largely driven by policies and supplies and be expected to grow steadily by 2030. LNG has improved the availability of natural gas worldwide and global LNG market is expected to remain loose over the next 5 years. Without new FIDs, however, the global LNG market may face a supply gap after that. Yet with the recent recovery in oil and LNG prices, it is possible to meet a breakthrough in FIDs. As the largest LNG buyer in the world, Asia is suggested fully leveraging the opportunities in the current buyer＇s market, actively optimize existing and upcoming LNG contracts, and invest in LNG upstream and midstream appropriately. Asian counties should also coordinate LNG procurement and trade to avoid resource competition and explore new mechanisms for regional joint supply and emergency management.