美国重启对伊朗制裁及相关影响分析

Analysis of the US reimpose sanctions on Iran

美国中东政策的核心是打击反美势力,防止伊朗成为地区大国,"遏制伊朗"是美国的重要战略目标。美伊矛盾根深蒂固,短期内难以化解。2018年5月8日,美国总统特朗普比原计划提前4天在白宫正式宣布美国将退出伊核协议,并将在未来的3个月和6个月重启对伊核的相关制裁,涉及石油、油品和石化产品出口、金融、保险和再保险等领域。各方针对伊核协议的命运博弈将会是一场拉锯战,目前尽管除美国以外的另外5个伊核协议签字国仍然支持该协议,短期内伊朗将继续维护伊核协议,但如果伊朗的经济利益无法得到保障,其退出伊核协议或重启核计划就成为一种可能。从当前形势来看,一旦美国重启对伊制裁,将对世界石油市场、中东地区安全形势、伊朗油气投资环境等产生一列重大影响,值得特别关注。

The core of Middle East policy for the US is to fight against anti-American forces and prevent Iran becoming a regional power. ＂Containing Iran＂ is an important strategic goal of the US The conflicts between the US and Iran is deep-rooted and will be difficult to resolve in the short term. On May 8, 2018, US President Donald Trump has formally announced at the White House that the United States is pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal 4 days ahead of schedule, in the next 3 and 6 months, the sanctions against Iran＇s nuclear program will be reinstated, covering oil, oil and petrochemical product exports, finance, insurance and reinsurance. The fate game between the parties against the Iranian nuclear deal will be a tug of war. At present, although 5 other signatories to the Iranian nuclear deal except the US are still supporting JCPOA, and in the short-term Iran will continue to defend its nuclear deal. If Iran＇s economic interests are not assured, it is possible to pull out of the deal or restart its nuclear program. Based on the current situation, the resumption of the US sanctions against Iran will have a significant impact on the world oil market, the security situation in the Middle East and Iran＇s oil and gas investment environment, which deserves special attention.