基于空间计量的广东省对外经济空间σ&β收敛性和集聚效应研究

The Study on the Spatial σ&β Convergence and Agglomeration Effect of GuangDong External Economic Based on the Spatial Econometrics

以1997年至2015年广东省21个市对外经济发展为研究样本,基于空间计量经济学分析框架,实证研究了广东省对外经济的空间收敛性和集聚效应.首先基于ESDA方法分析了广东省对外经济空间特征和相关性,然后基于空间计量模型研究了广东省对外经济σ＆β收敛性,最后基于熵的多样性指数实证分析了广东省对外经济总体集聚效应及分组集聚效应变化过程.从实证分析中可以得出以下结论：1）虽然广东省对外经济绝对量分布仍以“珠三角”区域为主,但是“珠三角”周边区域增速占据优势地位;2）2005年以前对外经济空间相关性具有明显增强趋势,2005年以后仍保持空间相关性,但是增强趋势放缓;3）广东省对外经济存在条件β收敛性和绝对β收敛性,2005年以后具有σ收敛性,并且考虑空间相关影响效应后σ＆β收敛性明显增强;4）广东省“珠三角”9市区域对外经济发展存在集聚效应,非“珠三角”区域对外经济发展存在扩散效应,组间熵表明两组之间对外经济发展存在明显集聚效应,广东省对外经济总体存在集聚效应.

The spatial convergence and agglomeration effect of External Economic of GuangDong were researched based on spatial econometrics. The spatial character and rel- ativity were studied based on EADA, then the σ＆β convergence of Guangdong external economic was analyzed based on spatial econometrics model, lastly ,the agglomeration effect was studied through the entropy index. The empirical results show the following conclusions： 1） The spatial distribution of volume is dominant in Pearl River Delta, but the around of Pearl River Delta have advantage on the speed up; 2） There is spatial relations in Guang- dong external economic before 2005 and the speed up became slowly after 2005; 3） There are absolute and conditional β convergence in the sample period and a convergence after 2005, the σ＆β convergence become enhanced according to the spatial relations; 4） There is agglomeration effect on the external economic of 9 cities in Pearl River Delta and diffu- sion effect on the other cities in Guangdong, there is agglomeration effect on the external economic of the whole Guangdong because of the agglomeration between the two groups.