遗煤层自燃影响因素重要性分析

Study on the Importance of Coal Spontaneous Combustion Influencing Factors

为了预测采空区遗煤自燃,对遗煤自燃的重要表征氧气消耗速率的影响因素进行重要性分析.根据现场经验和相关参考文献确定水分u1、固定碳u2、氧浓度u3、挥发分u4、温度u5为影响遗煤自燃氧气消耗速率的因素.但这些因素的相关数据存在着随机性、模糊性和离散性,且这些因素之间并不是独立的,所以提出一种云化ANP算法来适应该因素重要性分析过程.以专家评判作为基础,应用该方法对这5个因素进行了重要性排序,其结果为：氧浓度u3〉温度u5〉挥发分u4〉固定碳u2〉水分u1,最后与已有类似算法进行了比较,说明了算法的可应用性.

In order to predict the coal spontaneous combustion in goal, the importance of the influence factors of oxygen consumption rate are analyzed, the oxygen consumption rate is the important characteristic of coal spontaneous combustion. The influence factors of oxygen consumption rate are moisture contentul, fixed carbonu2, oxygen concentrationu3, volatileu4, temperatureu5 considering the field experience and related references. But the related data of these factors has randomness, fuzziness and discreteness, and between these factors are not independent, so a cloud ANP algorithm is proposed to adapt to the importance factor analysis. With expert evaluation as the foundation, the method was applied to the importance sort of the five factors, the result is： oxygen concentrationu3 temperatureu5 volatileu4 fixed carbonu2 moisture contentul. Compared with existing similar algorithms, it is given to Drove the applicability of the proposed algorithm.