创新驱动、教育发展与全要素生产率变化

Innovation driven development,education development and total factor productivity growth

经济新常态需要发展新动力,中国经济向全要素生产率驱动的转型势在必行.运用协整检验、因果关系检验、脉冲响应和方差分解计量方法,对我国1978-2014年创新驱动、教育发展与全要素生产率变化之间的关系进行了实证研究.结果表明,现阶段我国资本的产出弹性具有时变性,短期来看,创新驱动是全要素生产率变化和教育发展的原因,但教育发展并不是创新驱动和全要素生产率的原因;长期来看,创新驱动能够有效地促进全要素生产率的提高,且对全要素生产率变化的贡献在增强,不过教育发展还没有对全要素生产率变化产生显著的正向促进作用.

Economic new normals need development of new engine. It is imperative to accomplish the transformation of that total factor productivity with an economic driver. This paper analyzed the relationship between innovation-driven development, educa- tion development and changes of total factor productivity from 1978 to 2014 by using methods such as co-integration testing, cau- sality test, impulse response and variance decomposition. The results indicated that the capital output elastic of our country var- ied from time to time. In the short term, innovation-driven development led to the change of total factor productivity and the de- velopment of education, but the development of education can not cause innovation-driven development and the change of total factor productivity. In the long run, innovation-driven development can promote the improvement of total factor productivity effec- tively and has more and more contribution to the change of total factor productivity. However, the development of education has no obvious and positive effects on the change of total factor productivity.