台湾“隐性选民”的产生原因及探测方法

The Causes and Detecting Methods of “Hidden Voters”in Taiwan

"隐性选民"指在接受民意调查时故意隐藏真实投票支持意向的选民。在我国台湾地区,"隐性选民"在各类选举中普遍存在,并成为民调失准的主要原因。从产生原因上看,投票支持对象的"非主流"、社会认同的严重分化、民调机构明显的政治色彩,均使这部分选民基于社会心理学"避免冲突原则"与大众传播学"沉默螺旋效应"而不愿公开表明政治立场,甚至故意隐瞒投票意向。目前,探测这群"不真实选民"的真实投票倾向仍是难点。本文认为结合质化研究与量化研究,先从社会心理学角度找出不同类型"隐性选民"产生的原因,然后利用"内隐联想测量法""二次民调""网络民调"等方法,可以大致离析出台湾"隐性选民"的真实政党属性,消除"隐性选民"给台湾选举预测带来的误差,提高台湾选举民调的预测准度。

By＂hidden voter＂we mean a voter who deliberately hides his true intention to vote in support of public opinion polls. In Taiwan,＂hidden voters＂are prevalent in all kinds of elections,which have become the main reason for the inaccuracy of public opinion polls. In fact,the ＂non-mainstream＂of the voting objects,the serious polarization of social identity coupled with the obvious political color of the pollsters have made this part of the electorate unwilling to publicly state their political position or even deliberately conceal their voting intentions because of the social psychology＇s＂avoidance of the conflict principle＂and the mass communication＇s＂spiral effect of silence＂. At present,it is still difficult to detect the real voting tendency of this group of＂untrue voters＂. This paper argues that combining qualitative research and quantitative research,we should,first of all,try to find out the causes of different types of ＂hidden voters ＂from the perspective of social psychology by means of both qualitative and quantitative researches before using the methods of＂implicit association measurement＂,＂secondary poll＂and ＂network poll＂and so on to roughly separate out the true political party attributes of Taiwan＇s ＂hidden voters＂,eliminate the error that the ＂hidden voters＂bring to the election prediction and improve the accuracy of its electoral polls.