人民币升值根源再探:回到马克思主义

Re-exploration of the Roots of RMB Appreciation:Back to Marxism

人民币长期升值的根源在于中国相对他国劳动生产率的提高。在综合运用和比较马克思主义劳动价值论所演绎的汇率理论和巴拉萨—萨缪尔森汇率模型的基础上,文章试图采取有别于传统研究的视角,探索相对劳动生产率影响汇率变动的内在逻辑。从贸易部门和非贸易部门的角度,文章运用动态面板模型研究了主要贸易伙伴国与中国的相对劳动生产率以及各经济体内部的两部门相对劳动生产率等变量对汇率变动的影响。结论显示:第一,劳动生产率的提高是一国货币升值的根本动力,不管是贸易部门还是非贸易部门,劳动生产率的提高都能平稳提升一国的汇率水平,人民币升值的根源即在于此;第二,受发展阶段、经济结构和汇率制度等因素的影响,巴—萨效应在中国及所选取的经济体样本内均不显著,而马克思主义汇率理论则对人民币升值具有较强的解释力;第三,一国包括开放程度、人均GDP增长率在内的基础变量也会对汇率变动产生不同程度的影响。因此,高质量的经济发展是提升货币价值、吸引国际资本和增强国际竞争力的关键。

The long-term appreciation of RMB is rooted in the improvement of China＇s relative labor productivity. On the basis of using and comparing the Marxist exchange rate theory deduced from Marxism Labor Value Theory and the Balassa-Samuelson model,we try to explore the inherent logic of exchange rate changes affected by relative labor productivity,which is different from the traditional research perspective. According to the classification and the related data of trade and non-trade sectors,the dynamic panel model is used to study the effects that relative labor productivity of China and its major trading partners,and relative productivity of any two sectors within each economy entity have exerted on RMB exchange rate. There are several conclusions：First,the improvement of labor productivity is the fundamental motive force for a country＇s currency appreciation. The improvement in labor productivity,whether it is the trade sector or the non-trade sector,can steadily increase the exchange rate of a country,hence justifying the long-term appreciation of RMB and its magnitude. Second,due to the factors like the development stage,the economic structure,the exchange rate system,the Balassa-Samuelson effect is not significant in China and in the sample of selected economies,but we find that the Marxist exchange rate theory can better explain the appreciation of the RMB,therefore using such theory. Third,basic variables of one country,which include the degree of openness and the growth rate of GDP per capita,will also have different degrees of influence on exchange rate changes. Therefore,high-quality economic development is the key to enhancing currency value,attracting international capital and improving international competitiveness. In this process,we should speed up the transformation of the way of economic development and promote full employment. We should also ensure the simultaneous adjustment of wages and labor productivity while promoting the free flow of labor and capital. It is also necessary to deepen the marketoriented reform of the education and medical departments and reduce market monopolies in railway,real estate,postal and other industries so as to promote reasonable adjustment and effective formation of exchange rates. Besides,in order to increase openness and strengthen communication and integration between China and the world,we should apply effective communication mechanisms to remove various trade barriers and reduce trade disputes.