基于DEMATEL-ISM的电力CPS事故构模分析

Power CPS Fault Modeling Analysis Based on DEMATEL-ISM

能源互联网下电力信息融合风险管控将面临更多不确定性和复杂性,主要从复杂事故系统角度研究了电力CPS故障风险传递结构。首先,基于复杂事故系统概念构建了电力CPS事故系统,并对电力CPS事故致因因素进行提取梳理;在此基础上,建立DEMATEL-ISM解释结构模型对事故因素间传递关系进行分析,得到各风险致因因素间层次结构和复杂网络结构模型;最后,基于上述研究成果对电力信息融合下的风险传递发展趋势进行分析。通过研究发现,随着电力信息的深度融合,风险因素间扰动关系更加紧密复杂,关键节点失效更容易导致大规模系统崩溃。

In the trend of Energy Internet,power information fusion risk control will be more and more uncertain and complex. This paper mainly studies the risk transmission structure of power CPS from the perspective of complex accident system. Firstly,this paper constructed a power CPS accident system on the basis of the concept of complex accident system and summarized power CPS accident risk factors. On this basis,a DEMATEL-ISM interpretation structure model was established to analyze the relationship between the accident factors. Then the hierarchical structure and the complex network structure model were obtained. Finally,the paper analyzed the development trend of risk transmission under the power information fusion. The research showed that with the deep fusion of power information,the relationship between risk factors becomes closer,and the failure of key nodes is more likely to cause large-scale system collapse.