基于结构方程模型的舆情推演研究

Research on Public Opinion Deduction Based on Structural Equation Model

首先,通过对案例的观察,总结了中国负面事件的网络舆情推演基本规律,在此基础上确定了舆情推演因子;其次,根据推演流程,构建各因子相互之间的因果关系并建立模型,运用统计学理论对舆情推演模型进行检验和调整,得到各因子在整个事件发展中的相对重要关系和重要系数;最后,选取10个典型案例进行舆情效果因子预测实验,以期验证预测体系并不断完善。

First of all,through the observation of the case,this paper summarizes the basic law of the network public opinion deduction of China＇s negative events,and determines the public opinion deduction factors;secondly,according to the deduction process,constructs the causal relationship between each factor and establishes the model,and uses the statistical theory to test and adjust the model of public opinion deduction,and obtains the relative important relation and important coefficient of each factor in the development of the whole event;finally,selects 10 typical cases to conduct the prediction experiment of public opinion effect factors,in order to verify the prediction system and improve it continuously.