基于ISM与AHP的斜拉桥主梁施工阶段风险分析

Risk Analysis on the Girder of Cable-Stayed Bridges at the Construction Phase: A Study Based on ISM and AHP

以喀腊塑克水库特大桥为背景,运用解释结构模型(ISM)对该特大桥主梁施工阶段风险因素进行分析,通过建立多层递阶结构模型,明确风险因素上下级之间的关系,找出施工阶段中存在的表层、中间层和深层风险;再运用层次分析法(AHP)对主要的风险因素进行定性与定量的综合分析,通过对风险因素的权重比较,找出主要的风险源。结果表明:主梁施工阶段出现的风险因素中,施工技术风险和人因风险是影响主梁施工安全的主要风险,控制和监督主梁施工阶段的风险可以从这两点入手。合理、可靠的结论为该工程以及类似工程施工过程中的风险分析提供参考,以降低施工阶段风险发生概率。

Based on the background information of Kalasuke bridge, this paper analyzes the risk factors of the main girder of the bridge at the construction stage by using the interpretation structure model （ISM）. Through establishing a multi-layer hierarchical structure model, the relationship between the upper and lower levels of risk factors is clarified, and the superficial, middle and deep risks emerging during the construction stage are identified. Then, we use analytic hierarchy process （AHP） to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the main risk factors. By comparing the weights of these risk factors, we identify the primary risk sources. The results show that the construction technology risks and human factor risks are the primary risks affecting the construction safety of the main girder at the construction stage. The control on corresponding risks can start from these two points. The results of this study can provide references for the risk analysis during the construction process of Kalasuke bridge as well as other similar projects. As a result, the probability of risk occurrence can be reduced at the construction stage.