东亚货币合作中人民币充当货币锚的可行性研究

Feasibility Study of RMB as Monetary Anchor in East Asian Monetary Cooperation

近年来,随着人民币国际化进程的加快,人民币在东亚地区的影响力逐渐增强,人民币充当东亚地区锚货币的相关呼声逐渐增多。本文立足现实,分析人民币充当东亚锚货币的可行条件,利用基于卡尔曼滤波的状态空间模型进行实证分析。结果表明,虽然美元在东亚地区的影响力短期内无法取代,但是相较日元,人民币的影响力正在增强。下一步,中国应在构建人民币交易网络外部性上努力,努力扩大和培养人民币在东亚地区的使用和持有习惯。

In recent years,with the accelerated internationalization of RMB,the influence of RMB in East Asia has gradually increased,and the related calls for RMB to serve as the anchor currency in East Asia have gradually increased.Based on the reality,this paper analyzes the feasible conditions for RMB to act as the East Asian anchor currency,and uses the state space model based on Kalman filter to prove analysis.The results show that although the influence of the dollar in East Asia can not be replaced in the short term,but compared to yen,the influence of RMB is increasing.The next step,China should build RMB exchange network externality efforts to expand and cultivate the RMB in East Asia The use and holding habits.