美联储加息对我国跨境资本流动的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Fed's Increasing Interest Rate on Cross-border Capital Flows in China

2015年12月,美联储启动新一轮加息周期,引发了全球新兴市场国家对资本回流美国的担忧。近两年来,我国跨境资本流动形势一度较为严峻,2015-2016年外汇储备下降8000亿美元,尽管2017年形势有所缓和,但随着美国经济进一步提振,美联储加息预期不减,我国跨境资本流动形势仍存不确定性。本文回顾上世纪80年代以来美联储历次加息中我国跨境资本流动的不同表现,分析其中影响机理,并对当前加息预期下我国跨境资本流动形势作出展望、提出政策建议。

In December 2015,the Fed launched a new round of interest rate increases,sparking fears among emerging markets around the world about the return of capital to the U.S.In the recent years,cross-border capital flows in China once more serious,from2015 to 2016,foreign exchange reserves fell by$800 billion,although the situation has eased in 2017,with further boost of the U.S.economy and the Fed＇s Increasing interest rates,the future of cross-border capital flows in China remained uncertain.This paper reviews the different performance of China＇s cross-border capital in every round of Fed＇s raising interest rates since 1980s,analysis the influence mechanism,and provide the future outlook and policy suggestions.