中东变局综论

An Overview of the Changing Situation in the Middle East

2010年末以来的中东变局既是战后中东民族国家建设、社会发展曲折进程的阶段产物,是二战以来中东阿拉伯世界继民族主义革命、伊斯兰复兴运动之后的第三次社会政治变革浪潮,同时也是后冷战时代全球国际政治经济体系大变化、大调整和大发展的地区表现。这场中东社会政治变革动荡潮的根本动因源于阿拉伯国家现代化建设进程中的内在结构性冲突,其不仅具有突发性、传导性和多米诺骨牌效应等明显特征,而且使中东阿拉伯世界进入错综复杂、不确定因素明显的社会动荡敏感期或政治危机多发期,并在深刻而艰难的社会转型过程中继续延续,在地区动荡与阵痛中朝着"由变生乱、乱中求治"的总体方向发展。这些年来中东变局已经对地区政治和热点问题产生重要而广泛的影响,在目前和当下若干年,中东战略力量对比、地区国际关系格局变化处于由解构、重构到再平衡的转型过渡期。面对中东社会政治这一大动荡,美、欧、俄等世界主要大国(集团)也在积极谋划新的中东战略或进行相关政策的调整,以更有利于自身在中东的战略地位和利益维护。在世界转型、中东动荡的新时期,中国能否在中东探索出具有自身特色的大国外交之路值得关注。

The upheaval in the Middle East since late 2010 is a phase product of the post-war nation-state building and the tortuous course of social development in the Middle East,the third wave of social and political changes after the nationalist revolution and the Islamic revivalist movement in the Middle East since the Second World War,and a regional manifestation of the major changes,major adjustments,and major developments of the global political and economic system in the post-Cold War era.The fundamental cause of this turbulent wave of the social and political changes in the Middle East stems from the internal structural conflicts in the modernization process of Arab countries.It not only has obvious characteristics such as suddenness,conductibility,and a domino effect,it also makes the Arab world in the Middle East into a sensitive period of social turbulence or a period more prone to political crises in which complicated and uncertain factors are evident.And they will continue to be so in the profound and difficult process of social transformation,developing in the general direction of"from changes,comes chaos;from chaos,comes governance"during the regional turmoil and pains.The changes in the Middle East over these years have had an important and widespread impact on regional politics and hotspot issues.Nowadays and in the years ahead,the balance of the strategic strength in the Middle East and the changes in international relations of the region are in a transition period in which they are from deconstruction,reconstruction to rebalancing.Facing the social and politic turmoil in the Middle East,major countries(groups)in the world,such as the United States,the EU and Russia,are actively planning their new Middle East strategies or making adjustments in relevant policies as well in order to be more favorable to maintain their strategic positions and interests in the Middle East.