A new combined criterion to better predict malignant lesions in patients with pancreatic cystic neoplasms

Objective:Cystic lesions of the pancreas have been increasingly recognized.Some lesions exhibit benign behavior,while others have unequivocal malignant potential.Thus,accurate identification of malignancy in patients diagnosed with pancreatic cystic neoplasms(PCNs)remains a major challenge.The aim of this study was to define a combined criterion to better predict malignant lesions in patients with PCNs.Methods:We retrospectively analyzed 165 patients who underwent resection of PCNs from October 2011 to May 2017.The relationship among malignancy and serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9(CA19-9),preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio(NLR),and the presence of enhanced solid component on imaging was analyzed.Results:NLR before surgery in patients with malignant PCNs(2.81±2.14)was significantly higher than that in patients diagnosed with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor(1.90±0.69,P=0.013)or healthy volunteers(1.40±0.48;P<0.001).Serum CA19-9≥39U/m L,NLR>1.976 and presence of enhanced solid component were independent predictors of PCN malignancy.A combined criterion meeting any two or more of the three elements including CA19-9≥39 U/m L,NLR>1.976,and presence of enhanced solid component on computed tomography imaging is an indicator with a high positive predictive value of 80.5%and a high negative predictive value of 87.9%,and thus,represents a highly accurate test(86.1%).Conclusions:The new combined criterion is an effective predictor of tumor malignancy in patients with PCNs.