美国乙烷制乙烯对中国现代煤化工的影响

The Influence of Ethane in the United States on China's Modern Coal Chemical Industry

中国现代煤化工产业经过十多年的发展,已经初具规模,其中,煤制烯烃的产能占比已超过10%,产业的发展符合中国资源禀赋特点,并具有一定的经济竞争力。2007年以来,美国页岩气革命带动了低成本乙烷制乙烯产业的发展,预计未来将有部分产品进入中国市场,其对中国炼化工业发展的影响尚未定量分析。通过对比美国乙烷裂解、中国石脑油制烯烃和煤制烯烃等路径的竞争力,分析美国乙烷增量发展路径,发现在当前原油价格水平下美国乙烷制乙烯具有成本优势,但其新增出口规模不会对中国市场造成较大冲击,未来中国乙烯仍处于多原料并存的局面。

After more than 10 years of development, China modern coal chemical industry has begun to take shape in amount, and thecoal to olefins production capacity accounts for more than 10%. The development of industry is in line with the characteristics of China＇s natural resources and has certain economic competitiveness. Since 2007, the shale gas revolution in the United States has led tothe development of low cost ethane industry. It is expected that some products will enter the Chinese market in the future, and theimpact on the development of coal chemical industry has not been quantitatively analyzed. By comparing the competitiveness ofAmerican ethane cracking, Chinese naphtha to olefin and coal to olefin and by analyzing the incremental development path of ethane inthe United States, it is found that ethane has a cost advantage at the current crude oil price level, but its new export scale will not causea big impact on the Chinese market. China＇s ethylene is still in the situation of the coexistence of multiple raw materials.