汇率和成本不确定时跨国供应链的风险对冲策略

Hedging Strategies for Multinational Supply Chains when Exchange Rates and Costs are Uncertain

以包含一个供应商、一个现货市场和一个制造商的跨国供应链为研究背景,根据制造商在供应链中起主导作用且汇率风险和成本风险聚集在供应商处的情况,分析对冲策略在管理这两类风险中所起的作用以及现货市场对供应链绩效的影响。建立模型分析发现:(1)购买外汇期货这种金融对冲策略来对冲部分汇率风险能稳定订购量;(2)批发价激励这种运作对冲策略使得供应商的期望风险降低和期望利润减少,制造商的利润增大,降低整条供应链面临的风险;(3)现货市场的干预不会影响制造商对供应商的汇率对冲激励程度,但是现货市场产品价格对于供应商产量的敏感性越强,则制造商对供应商的批发价激励越高,制造商和供应商的利润越大。

In the global supply chain consisting of a supplier, a spot market and a manufacturer as the research back-ground, when the manufacturer plays a leading role and the exchange rate risk and cost risk suppliers gather in the case in the supply chain, the influence of hedging strategies in the management of these two types of risk and the effect of the spot market on supply chain performance were analyzed in the paper. The model was established, and the results show that （1） the purchase of foreign exchange futures hedging strategies to hedge the financial part of the exchange rate risk can stabi-lize the order quantity; （2）the hedging strategy operation of wholesale price incentive decreases the supplier’s expected risk reduction and expected profit, increases the manufacturer’s profit, and reduces the risks of the entire supply chain; （3） the intervention of spot market will not affect the hedge incentive degree of exchange rate of the manufacturers on the suppliers, but the spot market price is high sensitive to the output of suppliers, then more incentive of manufacturer wholesale price given to the suppliers, more profits the manufacturer and supplier will have.