我国林木种苗产业对社会经济的影响——基于时间序列误差修正模型

The Influence of Forest Seedling Industry on Social Economic based on the Time Series Error Correction Model

运用计量经济学方法建立误差修正模型,采用1999年至2014年的人均纯收入、人均GDP和林木种苗产业的时间序列数据,研究我国林木种苗产业对社会经济的动态影响。研究结果表明,我国林木种苗产业和社会经济之间存在长期稳定的关系,林木种苗收入是林农的主要来源收入之一;我国社会经济的发展需要高质量苗木,而过多的苗木单位会制约林农收入,对苗木单位进行整合优化势在必行。

Using econometric method to establish the error correction model, using the per capita netincome, per capita GDP and time series data of forest tree seedlings from1999 to 2014,research on thedynamic impact on the social and economic forest tree seedlings industry in China.The research results showthat there is a long-term and stable relationship between the forestry seedlings industry and the socialeconomy in China. The income from forest tree seedlings is one of the main source incomes of forest farmers.The development of China＇s social economy requires more quality seedlings, and excessive nursery stockunits will restrict the income of forest farmers. It is imperative to integrate and optimize the seedlings units inChina.