基于模糊定权的模糊可信性约束二次规划模型

Fuzzy credibility-constrained quadratic programming model based on fuzzy weighted weights

为了最大化黑河中游作物产生的经济效益和社会效益,采用模糊定权的方法将多目标效益转化为作物的综合效益权重,并将该权重应用于作物的水分生产函数中,对甘州区、临泽县和高台县的作物(小麦和玉米)进行水量优化配置.该模型为模糊可信性约束二次规划模型,模糊可信性约束中采用三角模糊数,可信性置信水平分别取0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8,0.9和1.0.以2011年的水量优化为例,优化后较优化前作物的配水量减少了3 701.25万m3,产量增加了1 291.28万kg,经济效益和社会效益分别提升了0.28亿元和0.18万人.另外,规划年2020年作物水量配置较现状年(2011年)的小麦和玉米的配水量分别减少了4.98%~5.24%和11.01%~12.07%,缺水情况得到改善.不同条件下的配水结果能够给决策者提供不同的方案.

In order to maximize economic and social benefits of crop production in the Heihe middle teach, the water allocations for crops （wheat and maize） in Ganzhou District, Linze County and Gaotai County were optimized. In the optimization, the fuzzy weighted weights method was adopted to transform the multi-objective into a comprehensive benefit weight of crop, and then the weight was applied to the crop water production function. A quadratic programming model of fuzzy credibility - constrained constraint, where the triangular fuzzy number was used, was employed. In addition, the confidence levels of credibility were 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9 and 1.0, lespectively. Taking the water alloca- tions for crops in year 2011 as an example, the water allocation in different areas are decreased by 3.7 × 10 7 m3 and the crop yield increases by 1.3 x 107 kg, especially, the economic and social benefits are improved by 280 million Yuan and 1 800 people after optimization. Further, in planning year 2020, the water allocations of wheat and maize will be decreased by 4.98% -5.24% and 11.01% - 12.07% , respectively, as compared with the status quo of year 2011, thus the water deficit situation can be improved, but still in a state of water shortage. These water allocations under various conditions can provide different scenarios for decision makers.