“一带一路”建设、国际生产网络重构与中国对外投资策略

Belt and Road Initiative,International Production Network reconstruction and China's Foreign Investment Strategy

当前我国已经发展成为世界第二大经济体,对外开放再次进入了一个新时代。为打破"低端锁定"的桎梏,在"一带一路"的顶层设计下,中国提出了改良世界经济体系的诉求。东亚区域经济合作是多方博弈的结果,然而基于信息博弈模型的分析发现,东亚区域经济合作在缺乏制度设计的情况下,难以维持长期的稳定均衡;通过优化制度安排和政策设计引领后发工业国加入,有可能变革当前不合理的国际经济秩序,进而引领国际经济秩序的重构。非股权经营有利于缓和国际对抗的情绪,中国对外投资应借鉴并利用此种柔性策略,但需要强化信号甄别机制,降低多方博弈中的信息不对称程度。

At present,China has already been the second biggest economy in the world,and has entered a new phase in its opening-up. In order to break through the low-end lock,with the belt and road development,China has put forward the appeal of improving the new order of the world economic system. On the basis of the economic game theory,the East Asian regional economic cooperation is the result of multilateral game. The East Asian regional economic cooperation cannot achieve long term equilibrium due to lack of mechanism design. By optimizing the mechanism design and with the lagging countries involving in,it is possible to change the current irrational international economic order and lead in the reconstruction of the new international economic order. The non-equity alliance could reduce international antagonism. China should utilize this tool and softening strategy in foreign investment,while it is necessary to stress the signaling mechanism,and to decrease the degree of information asymmetry in the game process.