结构化去杠杆的逻辑与政策建议——基于非金融企业的视角

The Logic and Poicy Reccomendation for Structural Deleveraging——From Non-financial Enterprise' Perspective

为全面掌握我国杠杆情况,剖析杠杆的结构性特征,认清去杠杆的含义,本文构建宏观分析架构,梳理了去杠杆逻辑,归纳总结了我国杠杆率的结构性特征及变化趋势,同时选取部分上市企业作为样本,对杠杆率与企业经营绩效及未来成长性之间的关系进行实证检验。结果表明,企业杠杆率与经营绩效之间并不是稳定的相关关系,而企业的经营发展离不开必要的杠杆支持。去杠杆应结合企业所有权性质、行业特征、成长规律等具体分析、差异施策。

In order to fully grasp the leverage situation of China and analyze the structural characteristics of the leverage, then recognize the meaning of deleverage, this paper builds a macro analysis framework, hackles the logic of deleverage and summarizes the structural characteristics and trends of the leverage ratio in our country. It also selects some listed companies as samples to test the relationships between leverage ratio and business performance as well as future growth empirically. The results show that the relationship between corporate leverage and operating performance is not stable, and the business development is inseparable from the necessary leverage. The deleveraging should be based on specific analysis, such as the nature of ownership, industry characteristics and growth rules, to implement differentiation policy.