基于投入产出模型的京津冀区域产业溢出及反馈效应研究

Research on Industry Linkages and its Spillover and Feedback Effect Among Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

采取区域投入产出模型,建立京津冀区域细化的产业部门分类,并分析各细分产业间的关联情况,对三地各自的区域内乘数效应、区域间溢出效应、区域间反馈效应进行了测算和分析比较。结果表明:北京各产业关联结构紧密,集聚性强,三次产业乘数效应均强于津冀两地,其工业与农业对河北的溢出效应较强;北京与天津高端类产业关系密切并促进产业升级;天津工业的乘数效应排名最高,服务业紧随其后,天津工业带动了河北传统产业的产出;天津与北京优势产业分布结构相似,未能形成跨地区产业联动发展;工业是河北经济的支柱力量,对京津各产业溢出效应很弱,未能有效发挥基础支撑作用。最后根据研究结论从发挥三地产业发展优势,构建三地一体化的产业价值链以实现三地协同发展的角度提出了相关政策建议。

In this paper,we extend the traditional two-regional input-output model to measure the intra-regional multiplier effect,spillover effect,and feedback effect between Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei. The result shows that the spillover effect from Beijing＇s manufacturing and agriculture to Hebei is strong; high-end industries of Beijing have more correlations with Tianjin,but the spillover effect is relatively weak. The multiplier effect of Tianjin＇s industries has the highest ranking,while the spillover effect drives the output of the traditional heavy industry of Hebei. The industry structures in Beijing and Tianjin share similar advantages,but fails to form a cross-regional industrially linked development. The manufacturing is the mainstay industry in Hebei,which has low technological content,and the spillover effect from Hebei to Beijing and Tianjin is very weak. Finally,we conclude policy suggestions for promoting the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei based on the integration of industry value chain.