2006—2015年徐州短时强降水特征分析与指标研究

Analysis on characteristics and index of short-time heavy rainfall from 2006 to 2015 in Xuzhou

利用2006—2015年徐州自动气象站逐时降水量的观测资料,统计徐州地区短时强降水历史个例资料,分析其发生时空间、年际、年、日和强度变化特征。研究短时强降水发生时环境背景场资料,分析中小尺度影响系统,进行归类比较,建立短时强降水的4种概念模型。并从相应的热、动力结构演变规律,分析物理量指标得出,充沛的水汽,深厚的湿层,中等强度的对流有效位能和高Ik指数等有利于短时强降水的发生。

Based on the hourly observed data from automatic weather stations in Xuzhou from 2006 to 2015,the short-time heavy rainfall were analyzed on the spatial,annual,monthly,temporal and strength change characteristics. Then,the environment background and meso-and micro-scale systems of short-time heavy rainfall were analyzed so as to build four conceptual models of short-time heavy rainfall.By using the statistical analysis of physical parameters,abundant vapor,deep wet layer,moderate convective CAPE and higher KI index are beneficial for the appearance of short-time heavy rainfall.