基于Logistic种群增长模型的微信消息转发影响因素研究

Research on the Influencing Factors of Message Forwarding on WeChat Based on Logistic Population Growth Model

[目的/意义]研究微信消息转发影响因素,剖析微信消息转发规律,为引导微信舆情提供决策参考。[方法/过程]以Logistic种群增长模型为理论依据,以Meme扩散模型为基础构建了微信消息转发模型,并通过仿真实践验证了微信消息转发的影响因素。[结果/结论]影响因素主要有微信消息转发量和转发量增长速率,发现媒体报道频率及用户转发概率对微信消息传播的引导作用较为显著。

[Purpose/significance] This paper aims to study the influencing factors and patterns of WeChat messages forwarding,and provide references for the guidance of public opinion on WeChat. [Method/process] Using the logistic population growth model as theoretical basis,the WeChat messages forwarding model is constructed based on the Meme diffusion model. Through simulation practice,the paper verifies the influencing factors of WeChat messages forwarding. [Result/conclusion]The main influencing factors are WeChat message forwarding volume and forwarding growth rate. It is found that the frequency of media coverage and the forwarding probability of users are more significant in guiding the spread of WeChat messages.