外汇市场运行有序 交易效率进一步提升——2018年上半年人民币外汇市场回顾与展望

FX Market Operates Orderiy and Trading Efficiency is Further Enhanced --Retrospect and Prospect of RMB FX Market in the First Half of 2018

2018年上半年，国内外金融市场波动加剧。从外部因素看，美国与其他主要经济体基本面差距的扩大，令美元走势出现反转；中美贸易冲突的不断升级，给国内经济和人民币汇率带来下行压力。内部因素看，随着金融去杠杆的持续推进，社会融资规模收缩、成本上升，信用违约风险有所抬头，央行通过货币政策边际调整，灵活运用多种工具，维护市场流动性合理稳定。与此同时，银行间市场通过不断创新产品和交易机制、优化系统功能，促进了国际国内金融要素有序、高效流通，不断增强人民币资产对境外投资者的吸引力。在本期中，本刊组织专题，对2018年上半年银行间货币、外汇、债券及利率、汇率衍生品市场运行情况进行回顾，并展望其下半年发展态势，供读者参考。

In the first half of 2018, with the intensification of international financial market turmoil, the rising risk aversion and the strong US dollar index, emerging markets generally suffered from capital outflows and currency depreciation pressures. The RMB exchange rate presented a reverse V-shaped movement with increased two-way fluctuations, however, the RMB exchange rate remained stable as a whole. The FX supply and demand remained balanced, the exchange rate expectations kept stable, and the FX management reform continued to deepen. The stable performance of the RMB FX market fully reflects the remarkable achievements of the FX market reform in recent years, marking the development of China＇s FX market into a more mature stage.