货币政策透明度与宏观经济稳定——基于国际面板数据的经验分析

Monetary Policy Transparency and Macroeconomic Stability——An Empirical Analysis Based on International Panel Data

本文基于一个包含中央银行和私人部门的理论模型和国际面板VAR模型,考察货币政策透明度对稳定宏观经济的作用。结果显示:(1)提高货币政策透明度能够减少因中央银行和私人部门之间信息不对称导致的通胀波动;(2)一个单位正向货币政策透明度指数冲击对CPI、PPI通胀率缺口的影响呈现非对称性,但整体上表现出负向影响;(3)在PPI通胀率环境下一个单位正向M_2增长率冲击短期内能够降低通胀和产出波动。

Based on a theoretical model and an international panel VAR model including central banks and private sec- tors, the authors of this paper analyze the role of monetary policy transparency in macroeconomic stability. The results of the paper show that, （1）the increase in the transparency of monetary policy can reduce the inflationary fluctuation caused by the information asymmetry between central banks and private sectors; （2）the effects of the impact of one-unit positive impact of monetary policy transparency index on the inflation gaps of CPI and PPI are asymmetry, but negative as a whole; （3）in the environment of PPI inflation, one-unit positive impact of M2 growth rate can reduce the inflation and the output fluctuation in the short term.