短期国际资本流动逆转对中国货币政策传导机制的影响

The Impacts of the Reversal of Short-Term International Capital Flows on the Transmission Mechanism of China's Monetary Policy

本文通过构建小型开放经济环境下的DSGE模型,研究短期国际资本流动逆转在不同货币规则下对货币政策传导机制的影响。结果表明,短期国际资本流动逆转会对利率、汇率产生持续的影响,它通过作用于中国货币政策传导机制来影响货币供应量,进而影响产出、投资、通货膨胀等经济变量,单一目标货币政策规则下通货膨胀与产出波动更为强烈,其货币政策有效性低于多种目标制的货币政策。

The authors of this paper construct a DSGE model in a small open economy environment to research the im- pacts of the reversal of short-term international capital flows on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in differ- ent currency rules. The results of the paper show the reversal of short-term international capital flows impacts the inter- ests and exchange rates continuously, and affects the monetary supply by affecting the transmission mechanism of China＇s monetary policy, and then affects the output, investment and inflation and other economic variables; the fluctuation in in- flation and output is greater in single-target monetary policy rules, and the effectiveness of monetary policy is lower than that in a multiple-target system.