金融集聚对“一带一路”区域经济增长的影响——基于空间溢出视角

A Study on the Impact of Financial Agglomeration on Regional Economic Growth in ''The Belt and Road''——Based on spatial spillovers

"一带一路"战略的提出为沿线地区的经济、金融发展带来了新的机遇,本文采用2000-2016年省际面板数据,基于Moran指数对省际"一带一路"区域经济的空间相关特征进行了检验,进而应用空间回归模型偏微分方法,对金融集聚的三种溢出效应进行分解并进行客观准确的衡量。研究发现:省际"一带一路"区域经济增长呈现出明显的空间相关性和差异性;金融规模、金融效率对经济发展存在正向的区域内溢出效应和总溢出效应,但金融规模的区域间溢出效应为负,还发现相比较于直接溢出,金融效率区域间溢出具有更大的效果;政府支出、外商直接投资和劳均资本等控制变量均具有正向总体溢出,其中,劳均资本的溢出效应最为显著。

The Belt and Road strategy brings new opportunities for economic and financial development along the routes. Based on the inter-provincial data from 2000 to 2016, the spatial correlation characteristics of provincial ＂The Belt and Road＂ regional economy were tested based on Moran index, and the three spillover effects of financial agglomeration were decomposed by spatial regression model and got objectively accurate measurement. The study shows that the regional economic growth of ＂One Belt And One Road＂ has obvious spatial correlation and difference; financial scale, financial efficiency has positive effects of the direct spillover effects and total spillover effect on economic development, but the indirect spillover of financial scale is negative. What＇s more, compared with direct spillovers, financial scale and financial efficiency have a greater effect on indirect spillovers. Government expenditure, foreign direct investment and labor capital and other control variables have a positive overall overflow, among that, the spillover effect of labor capital is the most significant.