国家自主决定贡献的特征研究

The characteristics of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions

国家自主贡献(NDC)机制于2015年巴黎气候变化大会确立,要求各缔约方参考各国国情以"自下而上"的方式提出应对气候变化目标。汇总梳理了作为国家自主贡献前身的国家自主决定贡献(INDC)164份,总结提出了各国文件的共性框架,重点对减缓和适应目标、实施条件和公平性等4类特征进行了统计分析。研究发现,各缔约方国家自主决定贡献文本差异显著,虽然具有共性框架,但是在具体目标阐述方式、覆盖经济行业及温室气体范围、实施条件和公平性阐述等方面选择迥异,此外,气候变化谈判立场对缔约方国家自主决定贡献承诺内容和形式的选择具有较大影响。

The Nationally Determined Contribution（NDC）mechanism was established at the Paris Climate Change Conference in 2015,requiring Parties to take a＂bottom-up＂approach to set climate change targets with reference to national circumstances.This paper summarizes the 164 submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions（INDCs）as the former version of NDCs,generalizes a common framework of the documents,and delivers the statistical analysis focusing on the four characteristics of national mitigation and adaptation goals,conditions and fairness.Results show significant differences in the text of INDCs of each Party.Although a common text framework is developed,different choices are made in specific demonstration of target,coverage of economic sectors and gases,implementation conditions and fairness.In addition,the climate change negotiation position has a significant impact on the choices of content and form of commitment made by Parties.