2017年季节性供气紧张的原因与对策

Reasons and countermeasures for the seasonal gas shortage in 2017

研究2017年冬季季节性供气紧张形成过程,对于认识我国天然气行业的市场化现状,促进行业平稳发展具有重要意义。为此,基于大量数据分析了2017年我国冬季季节性供气紧张的演变过程和严重程度,进而在前人研究成果的基础上,依据天然气供求框架系统分析了供气紧张的形成原因,并提出了应对策略。结果表明:(1)2017年季节性供气紧张从9月初见端倪,10月开始出现,11月集中爆发,12月持续发酵,并演变为全国性供气紧张,其严重性体现在供气量缺口巨大、波及区域广以及LNG价格大幅度上涨等方面;(2)经济回暖与"煤改气"导致天然气需求量的增长超过国内外气源的生产与储运能力约束下的供给增长,从而形成季节性供气紧张。最后,提出了针对性的应对策略:(1)以中游为突破口,上下游配合,有序推进天然气行业的市场化改革是解决季节性供气紧张的根本途径;(2)统筹推进旧管网的开放与新管网建设,有序建设联络线、核心管网、区域管网等新管网;(3)减缓经济波动与煤改气的冲击,增强供给的保障能力;(4)实行季节差价、峰谷差价等手段调节用气高峰需求,取消交叉补贴,推动气价并轨,出台区域性的应急调峰预案与建立区域性市场等。结论认为:2018年天然气供求形势预计将有所好转,但形势依然不容乐观。

Studying the formation process of seasonal gas shortage in the winter of 2017 is of great significance to understand the current marketization situations of natural gas industry in China and promote its steady development. In this paper, the evolution process and severity of gas shortage in the winter of 2017 were analyzed based on a large amount of data. Then, the reasons for the gas shortage were studied systematically in the framework of natural gas supply and demand based on the previous research results, and the corresponding countermeasures were put forward. It is shown that the seasonal gas shortage in 2017 began to take shape in September, occurred initially in October, broke out intensively in November, developed continuously in December and eventually evolved into gas shortage all over the country. And its severity is embodied as a huge gas supply gap, a wide range of affected areas, a significant LNG price rise and so on. It is indicated that the reason for the seasonal gas shortage is that the increase of natural gas demand caused by the economic recovery and that the coal-to-gas conversion exceeds the increase of domestic and foreign natural gas supply under the constraint of production, transportation and storage capacity. And the corresponding countermeasures were put forward as follows. First, the fundamental way to solve the seasonal gas shortage is to promote the market-oriented reform of natural gas industry orderly by coordinating the upstream and the downstream with the midstream as the breakthrough point. Second, the opening of old pipe networks should be promoted and the new pipe networks should be constructed orderly, such as tie-lines, core pipeline networks and regional pipeline networks. Third, the impacts of economic fluctuations and coal-to-gas conversion should be alleviated and supply capacity should be strengthened. Fourth, some other measures are also helpful to solving gas shortage like accommodating the peak gas demand by means of seasonal price difference and peak-valley price difference,abolishing cross subsidy to promote gas price merging, making the regional emergency peak shaving plan and constructing regional markets,etc. In conclusion, the natural gas supply and demand is expected to be improved in 2018, but the situation is still not optimistic.