对外贸易、贸易结构与产业结构优化

Foreign Trade,Trade Structure and Industrial Structure Optimization

本文按照货物贸易商品和服务贸易商品的标准把对外贸易商品分为两类,以2000~2016年中国省级面板数据为样本,基于SYS-GMM方法分析了对外贸易同产业结构间的关系。结果表明:对外贸易和产业结构间为先抑制后促进的U型关系;贸易结构、货物贸易结构和服务贸易结构的优化均能促进产业结构优化;对外贸易对高技术产业的影响为先抑制后促进,二者之间为U型关系,对外贸易和第三产业间为正相关关系;人均GDP、技术进步和人力资本的提升均有助于促进产业结构优化。最后本文针对研究结论提出了相关的政策建议。

The foreign trade goods are divided into two categories： goods and service. Based on that,the relationship between foreign trade and industrial structure is analyzed on 2000 - 2016 years＇ provincial data. The results show that there is a ＂U＂type relationship between foreign trade and industrial structure optimization,and the optimization of trade structure,goods trade structure,and service trade structure can promote the optimization of industrial structure. There is a ＂U＂ type relationship between foreign trade and high-tech industries but the tertiary industry. PGDP,technological progress and human capital level have a significant positive impact on the industrial structure. At the end of this paper some advisable suggestions for this articles research result are offered.