人口老龄化能否推动低碳竞争力发展?——基于省级面板数据的实证研究

Can the Aging Population Promote the Development of Low-Carbon Competitiveness?Based on Provincial Panel Data

随着中国经济进入新常态，人口老龄化、低碳发展、创新驱动成为未来发展的重要线索。文章构建了涵盖经济、社会、环境、政策方面的省级人口老龄化与低碳竞争力指标体系，并利用动态因子分析法测算了中国31个省（市、区）2005—2014年人口老龄化程度与低碳竞争力水平，发现上海、江苏、四川、重庆四地的人口老龄化最为严重，长三角、环渤海地区、东南沿海的低碳竞争力水平最高。同时，利用SEM、SAR、SARAR、SDM模型，从静态和动态两个角度分析论证，发现人口老龄化对低碳竞争力具有显著的推动作用，并强于相邻地区低碳竞争力的空间溢出效应，但人口老龄化对低碳竞争力的发展具有较为明显的滞后效应。因此，中国在转型升级进程中，应充分发挥老龄化对产业结构调整的催化作用，实现高效能、高效率、高效益的可持续发展。

With the new normal in China＇s economy, the aging population, low - carbon growth, and innovation - driven development become the main factors for future development. This paper constructs a provincial indicator system for the aging population and low - carbon competitiveness, which covers the economy, society, environment, and policies. The paper uses the DFA method to measure the aging population and low -carbon competitiveness of 31 provinces in China from 2005 to 2014. It concludes that population aging is the most serious in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Sichuan and Chongqing. At the same time, the Yangtze River Delta, the Bohai Sea region, the southeast coast have the highest level of low - carbon competitiveness. In addition, the paper makes use of the SEM, SAR, SARAR, SDM models to prove that population aging plays a significant role in promoting low - car- bon competitiveness, which is stronger than the space spillover effect of low - carbon competitiveness in adjacent areas, and from the static and dynamic point of view, population aging has a significant lag effect on the development of low carbon competitiveness. Therefore, in the process of transformation and upgrading, China should reasonably control population aging to give full play to its catalytic effect on the adjustment of the industrial structure, in order to realize sustainable development, high efficiency and high benefit.