基于极大重叠离散小波变换和Elman神经网络的磨刀门咸潮模拟研究

Numerical Study of Saltwater Intrusion in Modaomen Estuary Based on MODWT and Elman ANN

近年来磨刀门水道咸潮上溯频发,引起广泛关注。对该地区建立了基于极大重叠离散小波变化(MODWT)和Elman神经网络的咸潮模拟模型(MOD-Elman),模拟预测日均氯度,并借助一维纵向扩散方程分析河段的含氯度分布。结果表明:(1)MOD-Elman模型对非平稳的含氯度变化模拟效果较优且泛化能力较好;(2)咸潮影响预测图在一定程度上能反映站点之间各点含氯度变化。利用MOD-Elman模型和一维纵向扩散方程,可预测未来一段时间内磨刀门的受咸潮影响情况,对预警压咸有一定帮助。

In recent years, there has been a frequent occurrence of saltwater intrusion in Modaomen estuary, causing widespread concern. In this paper, a MOD-Elman model based on MODWT and Elman ANN was established. It could sinmlate the average daily chlorinily and analyze the chlorinily distribution in the river with the one-dimensional longitudinal diffusion equation. Results showed as follow： The MOD-Elman model performed well in sinmlating non-stationarychlorinily changes and had a good generalization ability; The ilffluence diagram of sallwater intrusion could reflect the variation of sallwater intrusion belween Pinggang and Guadingjiao sites to a cerlain extent. This paper suggested that MOD-Elman model and one-dimensional longitudinal diffusion equation could be used to predict the variation of sallwater intrusion in Modaomen estuary, which had a practical significance for guaranteeing the qualitysecurity of water source.