基于情景分析与多准则评价的集体林经营规划方法研究

Strategic Planning Method of Forest Management Based on Scenario Analysis and Multi-criteria Evaluation

以河南省重点林业县西峡县为研究对象,基于1993—2013年5期森林资源连续清查固定样地数据,1993年、1998年、2003年、2008年、2013年的Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI遥感影像,以30 a的综合轮伐期为情景模拟期,在土地利用类型监督分类基础上,进行规划情景构建、CAMarkov预测及多准则评价。结果表明:研究区2013—2043年森林经营规划,可以构建为资源破坏、生态保护、协调发展3种规划情景;CA-Markov预测分析表明,与规划基期相比,生态保护与协调发展2种情景的土地利用类型面积比例相差不大,而资源破坏情景的土地利用类型面积比例变动较大;采用林地利用率、阔叶林比例、森林碳密度、森林单位面积蓄积量、大径材比例5个指标作为评价准则对情景规划方案进行评价,协调发展情景最优,生态保护次之,资源破坏最差。

Xixia which is a key forest county in Henan Province was chosen as a case study area. Fixed sampling data of the forest resources from 1993 to 2013 was collected as the main information source,Landsat TM/ETM＋/ OL1 imageries in 1993,1998,2003,2008 and 2013 were gathered as the auxiliary materials,while the 30-year comprehensive rotation was selected as the prediction period. CA-Markov was run and multi-criteria evaluation of planning scenarios was carried out on the basis of supervised classification of land use types in the study area. Research results show that ： 3 planning scenarios named resource damage,ecological protection and coordinated development, were designed for the forest management planning in the study area from 2013 to 2043. The CA-Markov model shows that,compared with the land-use type in planning base period,the proportions of land-use types in 2 planning scenarios of ecological protection and coordinated development were almost the same,while the proportion of the land-use types in the resource damage were greatly different. 5 indexes of forest land use ratio,broad-leaved forest proportion,forest carbon density,forest unit area stock volume and large diameter timber proportion were calculated to evaluate the performance of 3 planning scenarios. The coordinated development scenario was the best, followed by ecological protection,and the resource damage was the worst.