新型城镇化对林业产业结构升级影响的实证研究——基于状态空间模型

An empirical study on the Impact of new urbanization on the upgrading of forestry industrial structure: Based on the state space model

城镇化与产业结构关系的研究是当前研究的一个热点问题,林业作为我国国民经济的主导型产业,探究城镇化与林业产业结构的关系对促进城镇化质量的提升、林业产业合理布局、城镇化与林业产业协调发展都具有一定的意义。基于1998—2015年的统计数据,以黑龙江省为例,通过构建新型城镇化与林业产业结构升级的指标体系,运用状态空间模型,并结合协整检验、格兰杰因果检验分析新型城镇化对林业产业结构升级的动态影响效应。结果表明:新型城镇化与林业产业结构之间具有长期的均衡关系,并且新型城镇化是林业产业结构升级的格兰杰原因,结合状态空间模型估计结果,可以看出新型城镇化对林业产业结构升级的弹性系数均为正且呈倒"U"形,说明新型城镇化对林业产业结构升级具有正向的促进作用,而且这种促进作用在波动中下降,一段较为稳定期后出现小幅度增长趋势。对此,提出了促进新型城镇化与林业产业结构升级协调发展的对策建议。

The research on the relationship between urbanization and industrial structure is a hot issue in current research. Forestry is the leading industry in our country＇ s national economy. It is of great significance to explore the relationship between urbanization and forestry industry structure to promote the quality of urbanization, rational distribution of forestry industry, urbanization and the coordinated development of forestry industry. Based on the statistical data from 1998 to 2015, taking Heilongjiang Province as an example, this paper constructs a new index system of new urbanization and upgrading of forestry industrial structure, and uses the State Space model, combined with cointegration test and Granger causality test to analyze the new urbanization. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the new urbanization and forestry industry structure, and the new urbanization is the Granger reason to upgrade the industrial sRu^tttr~ of forestry. Based on the results of State Space model＇ s estimation, the elasticity coefficient of the new urbanization on fhe upgrading of forestry industrial structure is positive and inverted ＂U＂ shape, indicating that the new urbanization has a positive role in promoting the forestry industry structure. And this promotion effect fails in fluctuations, and then presents a small growth trend after a relatively stable period. In response to this, it proposes countermeasures to promote the coordinated development of the new urbanization and forestry industrial structure.