金属化膜电容器寿命预测方法

Lifetime Prediction of Metallized Film Capacitor Based on Particle Filter

为了提高金属化膜电容器寿命预测精度,保证脉冲功率系统安全稳定的运行,提出一种新的基于粒子滤波算法的电容器寿命预测方法。该方法不需要大量寿命数据,能通过历史数据不断更新模型参数,准确地预测单个电容器寿命。对54个金属化膜电容器进行3种工况下的寿命退化实验,可以得到,相比于传统Weibull分布模型方法和Birnbaum-Saunders分布模型方法,所提方法的预测精度更高,3种工况下的平均预测偏差都〈100次,验证了所提出方法的有效性。

In order to improve the life prediction precision of the metallized membrane capacitor and ensure the safe and stable operation of the pulse power system, a new method of predicting the lifetime of capacitor based on particle filter algorithm is proposed. The method does not require a large number of life data, and can continuously update the model parameters through historical data, and accurately predict the life of a single capacitor. The life degradation experiments of 54 metallized membrane capacitors under 3 operating conditions can be obtained. Compared with the traditional Weibull distribution model method and the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution model method, the proposed method has higher prediction accuracy, the average prediction deviation under the 3 operating conditions is lower than 100 times, and the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified.