中国外汇市场开放综合成效评价

Evaluation on the Effectiveness of China’s Foreign Exchange Market Opening

开放外汇市场是优化东道国经济金融结构及实现贸易国际化的重要窗口,监管其跨境资金流动则是实现市场有效开放的保障。该文立足于2005-2017年主要经济体外汇市场开放月度数据,从空间与时间两个维度对比分析了我国外汇市场发展适应度,进一步通过压力指数法动态测评外汇市场的潜在危机性、敏感性、持续性与预测性,全面整合了我国外汇市场开放综合成效,有利于构建新型跨境政策框架。研究发现：一方面,我国外汇市场体量不断扩大、流动性逐步增强,但仍与发达经济体存在差距,人民币在国际上影响力有待加强。另一方面,汇率改革后（2005年至今）,压力指数回归零线的倾向加强,跨境资金流动危机开始缓解,特别是2016-2017年我国资本和金融项目开放取得较大进展,使得金融市场压力恒定下降,外汇市场开放的成效显著。

Open foreign exchange market is an important window to optimize the economic and financial structure of the host country and to realize the internationalization of trade,and to regulate the cross-border capital flow is the guarantee of effective market opening.Based on foreign exchange markets open in major economies in 2005-2017 monthly data,from two dimensions of space and time analysis of the development of China＇s foreign exchange market fitness,further through the dynamic evaluation of foreign exchange market pressure index method of potential crisis, sensitivity, sustainability and predictability, comprehensive integration of China＇s foreign exchange markets open comprehensive results,build a new type of cross-border financial policy framework for laying the groundwork.On the one hand,China＇s foreign exchange market is expanding and its liquidity is increasing gradually,but it still has a gap with developed economies,and its influence in the world needs to be strengthened.on the other hand,after the exchange rate reform（2005-Present）,pressure exponent tend to return to zero,cross-border capital flows are crisis began to ease,especially 2016-2017,China＇s capital and financial account opening,the greater progress made the financial market pressure constant,open foreign exchange market.