美国太空威慑战略调整及其影响

The Adjustment of US Space Deterrence Strategy and Its Impact

2009年以来,为应对日趋复杂的太空环境,美国开始调整其太空威慑战略,强调通过太空弹性能力、太空系统防御能力和太空国际合作,以增强美国在太空领域的拒止性威慑。美国在太空的战略地位相对下降、对太空的依赖性造成其太空资产的脆弱性,以及报复性威慑在太空难以实施等因素,是美国进行太空威慑战略调整的原因。然而,由于太空领域具有各方脆弱性不平衡、太空攻击难以归因、容易引发其他领域对抗和战争升级的特点,太空威慑相较于传统威慑在实力、决心和信息传递三要素上都存在差异,在目前太空国际规则尚不清晰的情况下更加难以实现。因此,美国的太空威慑战略会造成加剧太空军备竞赛、引发战略误判、挤压中国太空活动空间等影响,最终不利于维护和平的太空环境。

Since 2009, the US has begun to adjust its spacedeterrence strategy in response to the growing perplexity of the space environment, so as to increase its denial deterrence in the space through strengthening its capacity in space resilience, space system defense and international cooperation in the space. The relative declining of the US strategic position in the space, its reliance on the space making its space assets vulnerable, and the difficulty to apply retaliatory deterrence in the space comprise the fundamental reasons for the US to make adjustment to its space deterrence strategy. However, space deterrence is different from traditional deterrence in strength, resolution and message passing, as the space is characterized by unbalanced vulnerability of the parties concerned, difficulty to trace the attacker, and easily triggering off confrontation in other areas and escalation of war. Moreover, it is more difficult for space deterrence to be effective in the absence of clear international rules governing the space. Therefore, the US space deterrence strategy could do nothing but intensifying the arms race in the space, giving rise to strategic misjudgment, and compressing the space of China's space activities, which in the end would damage the peace in the space.