“一带一路”经济走廊国家贸易潜力分析

An Analysis of Trade Potential of the “One Belt and One Road” Economic Corridor Countries

基于时变随机前沿引力模型,实证分析中国与"一带一路"五大经济走廊国家的贸易潜力问题。研究结果表明,中国与"一带一路"经济走廊各地区的贸易发展不平衡。经济规模、距离、人口数量是"一带一路"经济走廊国家的贸易合作中影响进出口贸易的主要因素,中国是否与进口国接壤并不能对出口起到促进作用,由于多种因素的影响,中国应该加强与孟中印缅和中亚—西亚地区的交流与合作,这两个地区的空间提升33.9%和32.975%,具有很大的潜力。

Based on the time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model, this paper empirically analyzes the trade potential of China and the＂One Belt and One Road＂five economic corridor countries. The results of the study show that China’s trade development with the＂One Belt and One Road＂economic corridor is uneven. The economic scale, distance, and population of the economy are the main factors affecting the import and export trade in the trade cooperation among the countries along the Belt and Road Economic Corridor.Whether China shares the border with the importing country cannot promote the export, and China should strengthen due to various factors. With the exchanges and cooperation between Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, and the Central Asia-West Asia region, the space in these two regions has increased by 33.90% and 32.975%, which has high potential.