基于人粮关系的宝鸡市耕地资源人口承载力变化

Population Carrying Capacity of Cultivated Land Resources Based on Relationship Between Human and Grain in Baoji City

为宝鸡市粮食安全及区域耕地资源的可持续发展提供参考,以陕西省2001—2017年统计年鉴中宝鸡市的耕地面积、粮食总产量、播种面积、化肥施用量和人口数量等指标为基础数据,采用土地资源人口承载力(LCC)和土地资源人口承载力指数(LCCI)模型定量分析宝鸡市2000—2016年的耕地资源人口承载力变化,并预测其耕地资源的未来人口承载能力。结果表明:2000—2016年,宝鸡市的耕地面积呈波动减少趋势,人口呈不断升高趋势,并随着人口数量增加,人均耕地面积逐年减少;2016年宝鸡市的耕地资源可承载364.23万人,人口承载力指数为1.054,人粮关系处于临界超载边缘。预测宝鸡市耕地资源到2020年可承载的最大人口数为364.08万人,与预测人口数相比,超载31万人,超载率为8.43%;到2025年可承载的最大人口数为344.57万人,与预测人口数相比,超载58万人,超载率为16.77%;到2030年可承载的最大人口数为328.61万人,与预测人口数相比,超载81万人,超载率为24.75%;人口数量均超过耕地资源可承载的最大人口数量,出现超负荷现象。

The variation of cultivated land resources population carrying capacity in Baoji City during2000—2016 and future population carrying capacity of cultivated land resources are quantitatively analyzed and forecast by using the model of land resources population carrying capacity and land resources population carrying capacity index according to the data of cultivated land area,total grain yield,sowing area,chemical fertilizer application amount and population from Shaanxi Statistical Yearbook during2001—2017 to provide a reference for grain security and sustainable development of regional cultivated land resources.Result：The cultivated land area shows a fluctuation decrease trend but population presents a continuous rising trend in Baoji City during 2000—2016.The per capita cultivated land area decreases with population increase year by year.The cultivated land resources population carrying capacity and population carrying capacity index of Baoji City in 2016 are 3.6423 millions and 1.054,which indicates that the relationship between human and grain is at the critical overloading border.The forecast maximum carrying population of cultivated land resources in Baojo City will be 3.6408 millions in 2020 and the overloading population and rate reaches 0.31 million and 8.43% respectively compared with the forecast population.The forecast maximum carrying population of cultivated land resources in Baojo City will be 3.4457 million in 2025 and the overloading population and rate will reach 0.58 million and 16.77%respectively compared with the forecast population.The forecast maximum carrying population of cultivated land resources in Baojo City will be 3.2861 million in 2030 and the overloading population and rate reaches 0.81 million and24.75% respectively compared with the forecast population.The population will exceed the maximum carrying population of cultivated land resources in Baoji City from 2020.