基于数值模拟及统计物理学的滑坡临滑预报

Landslide forecast based on numerical simulation and statistical physics

将数值模拟及统计物理学中的方法引入滑坡预测预报研究,考虑降雨等影响因素的作用,进行滑坡临滑预报.以汉江某滑坡为例,运用边坡稳定模拟分析软件(Geo-slope)进行分析计算,计算过程中主要采用了Janbu法,根据得出的安全系数对边坡的稳定性进行分析评价.根据模拟结果,在可能发生滑坡的坡体布置观测点,利用观测得到的位移及降雨量数据绘制拟合曲线图,研究曲线的变化规律,得出滑动与降雨量的关系,进行滑坡发生时间的预报.研究结果表明降雨量的急剧突变是滑坡发生的前兆,可以用来进行滑坡的短期和临滑预报.且该方法所用理论简单易懂,计算理论和方法具有很强的可操作性.

A method of numerical simulation and statistical physics was used into landslide forecasting. Considering the influencing factor of rainfall at the meanwhile,the forecast of forthcoming landslides were studied. Taking a landslide in Hanjiang as an example,the slope stability simulation analysis software（ Geo-slope） was used for the analysis of the landslide. The Janbu method was adopted in the process of calculation according to get the safety factor of slope stability analysis. According to the simulation results,the observation point was decorated in the possible landslide slope. The fitted curves diagram was drawn by using the displacement and rainfall data. And the characteristic curves were studied. It could be found the relationship between rainfall and slide,and forecast the time of landslide. The result showed that the rainfall was the precursory of landslide,which can be used to predict the landslide of short time period and imminent sliding period. Also,the theories and process in this method were convenient to understand and operate.