转型视角下信贷配给对经济增长的影响研究——基于辽宁省数据VAR模型实证研究

Research on the Impact of Credit Rationing on Economic Growth from the Transformation Theory Perspective——Empirical Study Based on VAR Model of Liaoning Province Data

以辽宁省1996—2016年的时间序列数据为基础,采用VAR模型研究辽宁省信贷配给对经济增长的影响。辽宁省的信贷配给在较长一段时间内维持了经济较为平稳的增长,但经济较为平稳增长主要得益于信贷配给条件下商业银行对大型企业融资的优先支持,不论固定资产投资还是流动资金都在很大程度上依赖商业银行的信贷配给,而其经济增长的方式是粗放的,依靠大量要素投入尤其是信贷资金投入带动的经济增长,严重影响了经济发展方式转变和经济结构调整。为了实现经济的稳定和可持续发展,应改善宏观调控水平,加大经济体制改革力度,提高信贷资金配置效率,增强信贷服务实体经济的质效。

Based on the time series data of Liaoning Province during 1996—2016,a study is made on the influence of credit rationing on economic growth in Liaoning province by using VAR model. Credit rationing maintained a relatively stable economic growth in Liaoning province in a relatively long period of time; however,this is mainly due to priority support for large enterprise financing by commercial banks in the circumstance of credit rationing;both investment in fixed assets and working capital to a great extent depend on commercial bank credit rationing,the extensive economic growth mode,especially relying on a large number of credit funds inputs for driving economic growth,seriously affects the economic development model transformation and economic restructuring. In order to realize the stable and sustainable development of economy,we should enhance the macroeconomic regulation,take greater efforts in the economic regime reform,improve the efficiency of credit allocation,and strengthen the quality and effect of credit loan serving the real economy.