基于ARIMA模型的安徽省就业发展趋势分析

Analysis of Employment Development Trend in Anhui Province Based on ARIMA Model

利用安徽省1978-2016年就业人数数据,建立预测模型,对安徽省2017-2022年的就业人数进行预测,研究结果表明未来六年内安徽省就业人口年均增长率维持在0.87%左右,增长幅度较之前略有下降。通过对该模型的检验,检验结果表明建立的模型的拟合效果很好,适用于安徽省就业人数的短期预测。

According to the employment data of 1978~2016 in Anhui Province,the ARIMA（1,2,1） prediction model is established. The results show that the average annual growth rate of the employed population in Anhui Province is maintained at about 0.87% in the next six years and slightly lower than before. Through the examination of this model, shows that the established model has a good fitting effect and is suitable for the short-term prediction of employment in Anhui Province.