“一带一路”背景下区域对外经济效应研究——以山东半岛城市群为例

Research on the Foreign Economic Effects in the "One Belt and One Road" Background: A Case of Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomerations

"一带一路"作为中国全方位的对外开放战略,不仅促进了中国对外贸易发展的新转变,也带动了区域对外经济的新增长。在分析山东半岛城市群对外贸易现状的基础上,利用2000-2016年进出口数据和世界银行数据,采用双重差分法,探究"一带一路"倡议对城市群整体对外贸易效应及其影响因素。研究表明:"一带一路"倡议显著促进了城市群与沿线国家的贸易往来。从该倡议对山东半岛城市群与沿线国家的进口和出口的效应来看,倡议的提出对城市群与沿线国家的贸易出口有显著的带动作用,对贸易进口的促进作用不显著。分析影响因素发现:沿线国家的人均GDP和城市化率是影响与山东半岛城市群发生贸易往来的主要因素;人口数量、官方汇率和交通服务占比对其与山东半岛城市群的进出口贸易额也有促进作用,但并不显著。

As China＇ s all-round opening-up strategy, the ＂One Belt and One Road＂ propose not only promotes a new shift in the development of domestic trade, but also drive the new growth of the regional foreign economy. Based on the analysis of the status quo of foreign trade in Shandong Province, tills article uses the data of foreign trade from 2000 to 2016 and the data of world development indicators, and adopts the difference-in-difference to explore the effect of the ＂One Belt and One Road＂ propose on Shandong trade and its effect mechanism. Our research shows that the ＂One Bek and One Road＂ propose has significandy promoted the trade between Shandong Province and countries along the route. From the effect of the ＂One Belt and One Road＂ propose on the import and export of Shandong Province and countries along the route, the propose has a more significant driving effect on the wade export between Shandong Province and the countries along the route than wade import. The analysis of the effect mechanism found that the per capita GDP and urbanization rate of the countries along the route are the main factors affecting the wade with Shandong Province. The population, official exchange rate and the proportion of transportation services have no significant influence on import and export wade with Shandong Province.