金融发展对江苏省进出口贸易影响的实证研究

An Empirical Research of the Impact of Financial Development on the Development of Import and Export Trade in Jiangsu

运用面板回归模型,以江苏省13个地级城市为视角,对2002—2014年相关数据进行长、短期的综合评价。结果显示,长期内扩大资金的供给会进一步带动出口和进口贸易的发展,但资金供给效率的提高对贸易规模的提升影响为负,且这种负向作用对出口贸易的影响更明显。短期内金融发展对进出口贸易的促进作用具有一定的滞后性,误差修正系数具有较强的显著性。从优化金融机构内部结构、发展多层次资本市场、保持政府政策连续性等方面提出了相应的政策建议。

Using panel regression model, this paper makes long-term and short-term comprehensive evaluations of the related data in 2002-2014 years from the perspective of 13 cities in Jiangsu. Results show that the expansion of the supply of funds will further promote the development of export and import trade in the long period, but the improvement of the efficiency of the supply of funds is negative for the promotion of trade scale, and this negative impact on the export trade is more significant. In the short period, the promotion effect of financial development on import and export trade has a certain lag, and the error correction coefficient has a strong significance. Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward from the aspects of optimizing the internal structure of financial institutions, developing multi-level capital market and maintaining the continuity of government policies.