杠杆失衡、信贷错配与结构性去杠杆——一个动态随机一般均衡分析框架

Leverage Imbalances,Credit Mismatch and Structural Deleveraging:A DSGE Framework

笔者建立一个内嵌金融加速器与企业异质性的DSGE分析框架,刻画供给侧改革背景下我国企业债务杠杆的结构性特征,并分析其形成的微观机制与结构性去杠杆的对策。研究发现:(1)杠杆失衡产生的微观机制在于信贷错配,由于预算软约束与政府隐性担保,国有企业具有投资对利率不敏感、利率对杠杆不敏感的双重非敏感性,在面临负向冲击时能够以更低的融资成本获得信贷支持,从而累积了高杠杆。(2)杠杆失衡将扭曲经济结构,使资源流入以房地产与地方平台为代表的国有企业部门,造成实体产业空心化,民营部门活力降低,从而降低产出水平与经济效率。(3)货币政策受到信贷错配与杠杆失衡的掣肘,宽松的货币政策将导致资产价格泡沫、经济结构扭曲,而紧缩的货币政策不仅无法解决国企的高杠杆问题,对民营企业融资成本与产出的负向影响反而更大。因此,去杠杆不能付诸于一刀切的紧缩政策,需要结构性去杠杆,以提升资源配置效率,深化金融体制改革。

A DSGE framework embedded with financial accelerator and firm heterogeneity is built to explore the micro mechanism of leverage imbalances in order to analyze the structural deleveraging countermeas？ures. Research has found that： （1） The micro？mechanism of structural leverage imbalance lies in credit mis？match. Stateowned enterprises have accumulated high leverage due to the soft budget constraint and implicitcredit guarantee. （2） Credit mismatch leads to the inefficient allocation of financial resources and structuredeterioration due to the financial support distortions. It also reduces the vitality of the private sector, therebyreducing output levels and social welfare. （3） Monetary policy is constrained by credit mismatches and leverage imbalances. Loose monetary policies will lead to asset price bubbles and distort economic structure, whiletightening monetary policy will not only fail to solve the high leverage of stateowned enterprises, but also distort private enterprise financing costs and total output to a larger extent. Therefore, structural deleveraging re？quires the reform of the financial system in order to increase the efficiency of resource allocation.