船舶溢油事故定量应急处置决策方法

Quantified Decision-Making Method for Ship Oil Spill Emergency

为获取最优的船舶溢油事故应急处置方案,提出一种基于证据推理和决策偏好的定量决策方法。根据历史数据获取船舶溢油事故的典型应急处置方案,并根据已有研究获取其影响因素和决策准则。利用语言变量获取群决策中不同偏好下的决策准则权重。建立不同影响因素的定量评价方法,并应用证据推理对影响因素评价结果进行融合,获取不同决策方案下的决策准则值,从而获取最优应急处置方案。选取一起典型的船舶溢油事故案例进行验证,结果表明,提出的方法能很好地实现船舶溢油事故应急处置。

In order to help to select the＂best＂options for emergency response to ship oil spill accidents,a quantified decision-making method is proposed based on evidential reasoning and decision preference. Typical options for emergency response to ship oil spill accidents are collected from historical data,and both the influencing factors and decision attributes are identified from literature review. The linguistic variables are introduced to decide the weights of attributes through summing up the different decision preference in group decision-making. The quantified evaluation method for influencing factors is set up,and the evidential reasoning is introduced to fuse the influencing factors,upon which the decision matrix of different decision options is achieved and the best emergency option is derived. A typical example of ship oil spill accident is used to verify the proposed approach,and the result indicates that the model is useful and beneficial for emergency disposal of ship oil spill accidents.